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Hippo Holdings Inc. (HIPO)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered 31% revenue growth to $117.3M, a consolidated net loss ratio of 47% (improved 46pp YoY), and first-ever positive net income from operating activities; diluted EPS was $0.05 versus $(1.64) in Q2’24 .
- Results beat Wall Street: revenue modestly exceeded consensus ($117.3M vs $114.9M*) and EPS massively beat (-$0.68* est vs $0.65* actual); 5 EPS and 4 revenue estimates underpin consensus*.
- FY25 guidance raised across key metrics (GWP, revenue, net income, net loss ratio, adjusted net income); Baldwin partnership expected to add ~$90M gain in Q3, but lower revenue in Q3/Q4 by ~$5.5M/$6.5M due to distribution sale .
- Strategic catalysts: hybrid fronting program expansion (two new commercial/casualty MGAs), premium retention to 39%, and $50M surplus note; cash and investments rose QoQ to $604M .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “We stacked another strong quarter…more than 30% revenue growth…major improvement in our net loss ratio…positive net income from operating activities for the first time,” – CEO Rick McCathron .
- Consolidated net loss ratio improved to 47% (from 94% YoY), driven by underwriting/rate actions, better claims, and favorable reserve releases; HHIP net loss ratio fell to 55% (-58pp YoY) .
- Operating leverage: fixed expenses down $6M YoY as revenue rose $28M; fixed costs fell to 30% of revenue (from 46% in Q2’24) .
What Went Wrong
- HHIP gross written premium declined 9% YoY (growth in New Homes offset by reduced CAT exposure in existing homes), highlighting lingering portfolio normalization effects .
- Favorable reserve releases contributed ~7.5pp to net loss ratio; excluding releases, consolidated NLR would be 55%—still improved, but underlying normalization remains in progress .
- Seasonality: management guided to slightly higher consolidated NLR in Q3 (seasonally higher non-PCS losses) before improvement in Q4, tempering near-term loss ratio momentum .
Financial Results
Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)
Year-over-Year Comparison
Q2 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment Breakdown
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Guidance Changes
Additional notes: ~+$90M one-time gain on Baldwin homebuilder asset sale expected in Q3; revenue reductions in Q3/Q4 from lower commission income; adjusted net income expected lower by ~$2M (Q3) and ~$3.5M (Q4) due to Baldwin .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We…achieve positive net income from operating activities for the first time…launched…commercial and casualty programs…a strategic partnership that will accelerate our growth and diversification” .
- CEO letter: Baldwin deal “tripling access to new home closings” and strengthening finances via $100M asset sale; Q2 “posted positive net income from operating activities” .
- CFO: Long-term targets—GWP > $2B, adjusted net income > $125M, adjusted ROE >18%; premium growth outpacing fixed expense growth .
Q&A Highlights
- Rate actions and HHIP: Major rate remediation largely done; ongoing smaller increases as needed to maintain profitability .
- CAT exposure and reinsurance: HHIP Florida limited to new builds; corporate CAT protection overlays program towers; HHIP CAT load ~15% (Q3) and ~11% (Q4) .
- Operating leverage: Fixed costs expected to rise slower than premium growth (~8% vs >20% premium growth in plan), continuing scalability .
- MGA program selection: Start fronted (low risk), increase participation only after data-supported conviction; runoff programs failing thresholds .
- FAIR Plan & wildfires (prior quarter context): Q1 included FAIR Plan assessment within the $45M wildfire impact; recoupment to policyholders expected later (not in guidance) .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 revenue beat: $117.3M actual vs $114.9M consensus (4 estimates)*.
- Q2 2025 EPS beat: $0.6532 actual vs -$0.676 consensus (5 estimates)*.
- Implications: Consensus likely to revise FY25 loss ratio and profitability assumptions lower (improved), and raise revenue and earnings paths given guidance increase and partnership effects.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Achieved first positive net income from operating activities; consolidated NLR at 47% marks a structural step-change in underwriting performance .
- Strong beat vs consensus and broad FY25 guidance raise are likely catalysts; monitor Q3 one-time gain (~$90M) and seasonal CAT headwinds .
- Baldwin partnership accelerates New Homes distribution (3x access) and diversifies premium; near-term revenue mix shifts with distribution sale .
- Premium retention up to 39% toward 40–45% target, supporting revenue growth and margin leverage while maintaining underwriting discipline .
- Insurance-as-a-Service segment scaling (revenue +97% YoY) with disciplined risk participation adds ballast against property volatility .
- Liquidity and capital position improved: cash/investments $604M; $50M surplus note enhances capacity for select risk participation .
- Near-term watch items: Q3 non-PCS seasonality (NLR guide up slightly), CAT activity, and integration cadence of new MGAs and Baldwin programs .